7 research outputs found
Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects
Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from
social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer
scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science.
Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the
drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges
that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises,
global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and
last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability
and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the
interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the
influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a
crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to,
and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been
developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the
identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and
the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion
formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range
from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional
continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on
models employing both peer interaction and external information, and
emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in
driving the opinion dynamics. [...]Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure
Challenges in Complex Systems Science
FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT.
The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the
context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the
Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having:
many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition
laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial
conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities;
interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics;
combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving
subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context,
science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from
data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale
experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge
distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical
models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding
the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate
choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems
of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating
new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that
can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and
systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently
unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT
agenda
Manifesto of computational social science
The increasing integration of technology into our lives has created unprecedented volumes of data on society's everyday behaviour. Such data opens up exciting new opportunities to work towards a quantitative understanding of our complex social systems, within the realms of a new discipline known as Computational Social Science. Against a background of financial crises, riots and international epidemics, the urgent need for a greater comprehension of the complexity of our interconnected global society and an ability to apply such insights in policy decisions is clear. This manifesto outlines the objectives of this new scientific direction, considering the challenges involved in it, and the extensive impact on science, technology and society that the success of this endeavour is likely to bring about.The publication of this work was partially supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement No. 284709, a Coordination and Support Action in the Information and Communication Technologies activity area (‘FuturICT’ FET Flagship Pilot Project). We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for the insightful comments.Publicad
Dynamical phase transitions in Hegselmann-Krause model of opinion dynamics and consensus
The dynamics of the model of agents with limited confidence introduced by Hegselmann and Krause exhibits multiple well-separated regimes characterised by the number of distinct clusters in the stationary state. We present indications that there are genuine dynamical phase transitions between these regimes. The main indicator is the divergence of the average evolution time required to reach the stationary state. The slowdown close to the transition is connected with the emergence of the groups of mediator agents which are very small but have decisive role in the process of social convergence. More detailed study shows that the histogram of the evolution times is composed of several peaks. These peaks are unambiguously interpreted as corresponding to mediator groups consisting of one, two, three etc. agents. Detailed study reveals that each transition possesses also an internal fine structure. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011